Sterling, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

345
FXAK68 PAFC 250010
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
410 PM AKDT Thu Jul 24 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3)...

Warm, dry, and mostly sunny conditions continue across much of
Southcentral this afternoon. Later this evening, an approaching
shortwave will bring showers over the Talkeetnas and upper
elevations of the Chugach front range and Wrangell mountains.

Friday morning a more substantial upper level low will descend
from western Alaska, across Southwest and Southcentral Alaska,
bringing cooler temperatures for Friday and widespread moderate
rainfall to most of the region through Saturday morning. Model
guidance indicates accumulations of 0.25 to 0.35 inch of rain for
the southern Kenai Peninsula and Copper Basin, and 0.40 to 0.80
inch of rain for most other locations. Expect widespread Small
Craft Advisories for coastal waters in the northern Gulf and
areas around Kodiak Friday.

By Saturday, the low will have moved into the Gulf, with areas of
gusts up to gale force in offshore zones of the northern Gulf
through Saturday evening. Warm temperatures quickly return as
ridging builds from the west, though some showers may linger over
the eastern Sound and Copper Valley.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Saturday)...

In the upper-levels, a trough situated over the Seward Peninsula
and a broad ridge over the Central Bering Sea will serve as the
two major factors to the weather pattern for Southwestern Alaska.
Ongoing showers over the Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim
Valley driven by the trough orientation will continue early
tonight and expand steadily eastward into Monday morning. The
trough over western Alaska is poised to drop to the southeast
tonight and Friday morning driving the southeastward expansion of
the rain at the surface. Expect rain to expand across mainland
Southwest Alaska through Friday morning, producing moderate to
heavy rain at times for the Kuskokwim Delta, Lower Kuskokwim
Valley, then Bristol Bay by Friday morning. Gusty northwesterly
gap winds through the eastern Aleutians and AKPen are then
anticipated Friday afternoon into Saturday as the low enters the
Gulf. The strongest winds are expected along the southern AKPen
east of Chignik, with gusts likely reaching gale- force. Small-
craft northwesterly winds are also anticipated for the Bristol Bay
marine area, lasting from Friday afternoon through at least
Sunday morning.

The ridge over the Bering continues to strengthen and remain
nearly stationary, allowing for the persistent low stratus and fog
to stick around. Following the passage of the trough and it`s exit
to the southeast, the ridge will fill in steadily behind,
expanding its influence eastward, spreading the stratus and fog
across the eastern Aleutians, reaching the Alaska Peninsula by
Sunday. Weather across Southwest mainland will quiet down
following the trough passage, allowing for clearing skies and
drier conditions Saturday into Sunday for the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley and portions of interior Bristol Bay.

-CL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

Few updates to the long term forecast since yesterday`s
discussion, though a potentially impactful storm could move into
the Bering Sea as early as next Thursday.

The features to note for the long-term forecast will be a ridge
over the Bering Sea, and a low lingering in the Gulf of Alaska
through the duration of the forecast period. With the ridge,
expect lingering fog and low stratus across the Bering Sea until
the ridge begins to exit into Southwest Alaska early next week.
Behind the ridge, expect windier and wetter conditions as a front
moves in. We`re monitoring the potential for a low pressure system
to intensify as it moves into the Bering Sea on Thursday,
bringing the potential for gales. Robust moisture advection with
this low could also bring moderate to heavy rain. It`s too early
to say for now where this storm will track, but it will bear
watching as we get closer to the end of the month.

Otherwise, for the Southern Mainland, expect unsettled weather as
upper level shortwaves rotate around the low in the Gulf and
emanate from a longwave trough over Northern Alaska.

-KC

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Rain will move
into the region Friday morning. VFR conditions are expected,
though high MVFR cigs and visibility in heavier rain showers have
a low probability of occurring.


&&


$$