Sterling, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

974
FXAK68 PAFC 221305
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
505 AM AKDT Thu May 22 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A vertically stacked low continues to drift slowly eastward over
the western Gulf this morning. An occluded front associated with
this low is draped over the northwestern Gulf and has stalled over
the area. Easterly winds and widespread rain out ahead of this
front continue across the Gulf and into Kodiak Island and the
eastern Kenai Peninsula. Farther inland over the interior,
clearing skies over the Copper River Basin have allowed
temperatures overnight to drop into 30s across much of the region.
Farther west, a few scattered showers are lingering over the
Talkeetnas along with gusty southeasterly wind lingering through
Turnagain Arm and West Anchorage.

The low and its front will slowly drift southeast through today,
allowing precipitation to taper off across the eastern Kenai
Peninsula by early this afternoon. For Kodiak Island, the
precipitation and gusty winds will persist through Friday morning
before the influence of the low and its front wanes.

Expect another round of southeasterly gap winds for Turnagain Arm
and the Knik and Copper River Valleys this afternoon and evening;
however, the magnitude of these winds will be less than what was
observed yesterday. A few scattered showers will also be possible
this afternoon and evening, especially over higher terrain and
along the western foothills of the Talkeetna and Chugach
Mountains. Some of these showers may make it over the southern and
western portions of the Mat-Su Valleys.

Warmer temperatures, especially across the interior, build in for
Friday and Saturday as the coast sees a reprieve from rain. With
the warmer temperatures, instability will also build for Friday
and Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across northern
portions of the Copper River Basin Friday afternoon and early
evening as an easterly wave works westward from Yukon, Canada.
Likewise, Saturday also features increased instability across the
interior with the northeast Copper River Basin looking the most
unstable. While the best chance for isolated thunderstorms will
over the northeast Copper Basin Saturday, western portions of the
Susitna Valley could also have enough instability present to
generate a few lightning strikes with any vigorous showers that
develop in the foothills of the eastern facing slopes of the
Alaska Range.

-TM/DAN

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...


Chances for widespread precipitation decrease through the day as
a ridge builds across the Bering Sea and Alaskan mainland. This
will create warmer and generally drier conditions for the start
of the weekend. Scattered showers will still be possible,
particularly in the Kuskokwim Valley and across higher terrain, as
afternoon instability becomes more influential beneath the ridge.
Daytime temperatures will climb into the mid 50s across the
Southwest mainland by Friday and Saturday.

For the Bering Sea, temperatures remain cooler as a low passes
between Adak and the Pribilof Islands, exiting to the east across
Unalaska this afternoon. As its front progresses eastward it will
bring rain from Adak to the Alaska Peninsula, tapering through
Friday morning. Farther west on Friday morning, a larger low,
lifting north along the coast of Kamchatka, will push its front
sweeping across the entire Bering Sea and Aleutian Island chain.
Small craft winds and moderate to heavy rain will be associated
with this front. Winds up to gale force will span an area from
Attu to west and south of Adak. The front advances to the
Pribilofs and Unalaska by Saturday morning, the Alaska Peninsula
by Saturday afternoon, and the Southwest mainland by Sunday
morning. This front weakens as it progresses eastward, greatly
reducing winds, but moderate rainfall is yet expected to reach the
coastal mainland. The low then races south across the Eastern
Aleutians and into the North Pacific by Sunday afternoon.


&&



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

A broad upper level low stretches from Siberia across the Bering
before angling into the Gulf of Alaska. Several shortwaves help
the low centers slip through the pattern as the low becomes more
organized over the Eastern Bering and Western Mainland by the end
of the forecast period. The most persistent low anchors over the
Gulf of Alaska through midweek. Models favor the GFS through the
new week maintaining strengths and tracks of features.

Lingering showers are expected over the Southern half of Mainland
Alaska through Wednesday. A rain-wrapped low and front pushing
across the Central Aleutians and Bering brings moderate rain and
locally gusty winds into the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska
through Monday. The low sweeps into the Gulf of Alaska, spreading
the rain into Southcentral Alaska and North to the Alaska Range
until Wednesday. Snow is expected over higher elevations,
diminishing Tuesday. In the West, a well developed North Pacific
low and front does a drive-by over the Western and Central
Aleutians for Tuesday and Wednesday before curving back into the
North Pacific.

- Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period.
Southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds will increase early this
afternoon and persist through the evening hours. Gusts up to 25
knots are expected before diminishing overnight.

&&


$$